Find MLB betting opportunities in expected win totals

We’re only a month into the season but we’re starting to see differentials between teams’ actual records and what their mathematically expected records ought to be.

(Expected win-loss is calculated as a percentage. The numerator is the number of runs a team has scored, raised to the exponent 1.82. The denominator is runs scored raised to that exponent plus runs allowed raised to that exponent. The formula is fairly simple but I’m not sure why 1.82 is the exponent. If anyone knows, write in.)

All stats after Sunday’s games.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Record: 14-17 / Expected record: 8-23

Difference: -6.

Can the Pirates really be that much worse than their record suggests? I guess so. The Bucs have scored 113 runs and coughed up 195. That doesn’t look like a 14-17 team to me.

Possible ways to profit: Neither Charlie Morton nor Brian Burres looks like a major league starter. Then again, what if we just tried fading Pittsburgh every game for a month? Even at a lucky 14-17, they Pirates are yielding +5.31 units on the season. What’s the worst that could happen?

Colorado Rockies

Record: 15-16 / Expected record: 19-12

Difference: +4.

The Rockies have a losing record, yet scored 152 runs while allowing only 120. Something’s gotta give.

Possible ways to profit: Ubaldo Jimenez has been a stud, but Jhoulys Chacin has been a revelation. Jeff Francis makes a second rehab start in Double-A. The offense is loaded so the Rockies should be a good bet when a capable pitcher takes the hill. Every home park is a little different, but home field has to be worth something. The Rox have played only 12 games so far at Coors Field, with 19 on the road.

Washington Nationals

Record: 17-14 / Expected record: 14-17

Difference: -3.

I don’t want to dump on the Nationals, but their record could be a bit of a mirage. They’ve scored 129 runs while allowing 146.

Possible ways to profit: The opposite of the Rockies, they’ve already played 19 games at home and only 12 away. Livan Hernandez is doing it with smoke and mirrors. I lost when I faded him Sunday, but I’ll be fading him again.

Just tying up a few more teams:

Teams at +2 (modestly unlucky so far): Florida, Milwaukee and San Francisco.

Teams at -2 (modestly lucky so far): Cincinnati, Houston and the Los Angeles Angels - the only AL team more than one win away from the expected total, up or down