Freaking umpires.
Sometimes, it’s hard to figure out what game they’re watching.
Take Sunday’s Mariners-Tigers game, for instance. Detroit starter Jeremy Bonderman could not buy a strike from home plate umpire C.B. Bucknor. It wasn’t like Bonderman was nibbling at the edges, either. Buckner was calling balls on pitches that started and ended in the middle of the plate.
"I was definitely not getting the same strike zone as (Seattle starter Cliff Lee) did, but I obviously didn't throw the ball well, so I'm not going to make excuses," Bonderman told the Associated Press.
With Lee on the bump for Seattle, Bucknor’s blindness really didn’t matter. The Mariners were in good shape, regardless. But anyone who bet the under at 7.5 probably wasn’t too thrilled with Bucknor’s judgment.
Bonderman’s frustration over Bucknor’s miniscule strike zone forced him to groove a few pitches on unfavorable counts. Even the puny Mariners could hit these meatballs. And they did, on their way to an 8-1 victory.
Russell Branyan and Casey Kotchman hit three-run home runs and the total was eclipsed by the fifth inning. Kotchman’s bomb came shortly after one of Bucknor’s missed strike calls.
By that time, Bonderman had had enough and was ejected after giving Bucknor an ear-full as he left the mound. Shortly after, his battery mate, catcher Gerald Laird, would earn himself an early exit by berating Bucknor as well.
At least, Bonderman, Laird and bettors who took the under would later get a good laugh at Bucknor’s expense. In the seventh, the struggling umpire made an overly dramatic strike-three call on Johnny Damon, only to realize it was only strike two. Jackass.
We all love to blame the umpires. From Don Denkinger costing the Cardinals the 1985 World Series to Tim McLelland’s series of blunders in last year’s ALCS between the Yankees and Twins, Old Blue has produced more than his fair share of bad beats.
But on the bright side, umpires also can act as a reliable handicapping tool for betting totals. Take Tim Welke, for instance. As of Monday, 12 of the 16 games he’s called behind home plate had gone over the total. With Welke calling balls and strikes, games are averaging a MLB-high 11.3 runs and 2.56 home runs.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, there’s Jim Wolf. Twelve of the first 15 games he called went under the total. With Wolf calling balls and strikes, games are averaging a measly 6.1 runs and only 1.4 home runs per game.
Of the umpires who have called at least 12 games behind home plate, Sam Holbrook has seen the highest rate of home runs at 2.77 per game. Holbrook’s games have gone over eight of 12 times, averaging 9.4 runs per game.
Bob Davidson is the only home plate umpire to have called games that averaged less than one home run. Appropriately, 11 of the 15 games he’s been behind the plate have stayed under the total, averaging 7.9 runs per game.
Those are just a couple of examples that show how umpires - much like NBA refs - do indeed play a significant role in the scoring. Here are a couple more umpires to be on the look out for the second half of the season, along with the link to the complete umpire over/under stats.
Angel Hernandez: Both pitchers and hitters have complained about Hernandez’s erratic strike zone. Eleven of his 16 appearances behind the plate have gone over.
Mike Estabrook: In his 16 appearances behind the plate, games have averaged just 6.5 runs. He’s 4-12 under/over.
In the end, basing your handicapping on umpire tendencies can produce profits. But like all systems, they are not failsafe and sometimes it’s difficult to figure out exactly who will be behind the plate.
Generally, the first-base umpire the game before will move behind the plate. But that’s not always the case. Some media outlets also release the umpire assignments a little bit before first pitch. You must be savvy and ready to pounce, though, because you won’t have a lot of time.
Sometimes, it’s hard to figure out what game they’re watching.
Take Sunday’s Mariners-Tigers game, for instance. Detroit starter Jeremy Bonderman could not buy a strike from home plate umpire C.B. Bucknor. It wasn’t like Bonderman was nibbling at the edges, either. Buckner was calling balls on pitches that started and ended in the middle of the plate.
"I was definitely not getting the same strike zone as (Seattle starter Cliff Lee) did, but I obviously didn't throw the ball well, so I'm not going to make excuses," Bonderman told the Associated Press.
With Lee on the bump for Seattle, Bucknor’s blindness really didn’t matter. The Mariners were in good shape, regardless. But anyone who bet the under at 7.5 probably wasn’t too thrilled with Bucknor’s judgment.
Bonderman’s frustration over Bucknor’s miniscule strike zone forced him to groove a few pitches on unfavorable counts. Even the puny Mariners could hit these meatballs. And they did, on their way to an 8-1 victory.
Russell Branyan and Casey Kotchman hit three-run home runs and the total was eclipsed by the fifth inning. Kotchman’s bomb came shortly after one of Bucknor’s missed strike calls.
By that time, Bonderman had had enough and was ejected after giving Bucknor an ear-full as he left the mound. Shortly after, his battery mate, catcher Gerald Laird, would earn himself an early exit by berating Bucknor as well.
At least, Bonderman, Laird and bettors who took the under would later get a good laugh at Bucknor’s expense. In the seventh, the struggling umpire made an overly dramatic strike-three call on Johnny Damon, only to realize it was only strike two. Jackass.
We all love to blame the umpires. From Don Denkinger costing the Cardinals the 1985 World Series to Tim McLelland’s series of blunders in last year’s ALCS between the Yankees and Twins, Old Blue has produced more than his fair share of bad beats.
But on the bright side, umpires also can act as a reliable handicapping tool for betting totals. Take Tim Welke, for instance. As of Monday, 12 of the 16 games he’s called behind home plate had gone over the total. With Welke calling balls and strikes, games are averaging a MLB-high 11.3 runs and 2.56 home runs.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, there’s Jim Wolf. Twelve of the first 15 games he called went under the total. With Wolf calling balls and strikes, games are averaging a measly 6.1 runs and only 1.4 home runs per game.
Of the umpires who have called at least 12 games behind home plate, Sam Holbrook has seen the highest rate of home runs at 2.77 per game. Holbrook’s games have gone over eight of 12 times, averaging 9.4 runs per game.
Bob Davidson is the only home plate umpire to have called games that averaged less than one home run. Appropriately, 11 of the 15 games he’s been behind the plate have stayed under the total, averaging 7.9 runs per game.
Those are just a couple of examples that show how umpires - much like NBA refs - do indeed play a significant role in the scoring. Here are a couple more umpires to be on the look out for the second half of the season, along with the link to the complete umpire over/under stats.
Angel Hernandez: Both pitchers and hitters have complained about Hernandez’s erratic strike zone. Eleven of his 16 appearances behind the plate have gone over.
Mike Estabrook: In his 16 appearances behind the plate, games have averaged just 6.5 runs. He’s 4-12 under/over.
In the end, basing your handicapping on umpire tendencies can produce profits. But like all systems, they are not failsafe and sometimes it’s difficult to figure out exactly who will be behind the plate.
Generally, the first-base umpire the game before will move behind the plate. But that’s not always the case. Some media outlets also release the umpire assignments a little bit before first pitch. You must be savvy and ready to pounce, though, because you won’t have a lot of time.
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