BIG TEN Forecast

Twelve hyper-specific predicitions. Wrapping up the Doc's Big Ten Week.

Ohio State will still run about twice as often as it passes on offense, but Terrelle Pryor will rebound from a mediocre passing season as a sophomore to lead the conference in pass efficiency and total offense. The Buckeyes will also lead the league in scoring for the first time since 2006 at 32-34 points per game, up by more than a field goal over last year's average and nearly a touchdown over 2008 en route to the BCS Championship Game.

Iowa will improve significantly in total and scoring offense, but after going 4-1 last year in games decided by a field goal or less, the Hawkeyes will drop a pair of fourth-quarter heartbreakers with Ricky Stanzi and Co. looking on from the sideline in the closing minutes.

After posting dreadful –12 and –10 turnover margins the last two years with wholly inexperienced quarterback platoons, Michigan will roughly break even on the giveaway/takeaway scale, bumping overall scoring to more than 30 points per game despite failing to decide on incumbent Tate Forcier or spring star Denard Robinson as the full-time quarterback.

The Wolverines will break even on the season, as well, coming in at 6-6 after giving Ohio State a run for its money in the regular season finale, sneaking into a lower-tier bowl game and (barely) saving Rich Rodriguez's job into 2011.

Wisconsin will lead (or come very close to leading) the nation in time of possession for the third time in four years, once again pounding out the Big Ten's most run-oriented attack in service of an All-America season by thundering tailback John Clay.

Penn State will fall out of the polls after ugly early losses at Alabama and Iowa, but surge back after winning six of seven en route to another New Year's Day bowl bid and a coupon redeemable for a mountain of hype in 2011, when quarterback Kevin Newsome and nine starters on this year's defense return.

Michigan State linebacker Greg Jones will wrap up over 100 tackles for the third year in a row, along with his second straight Defensive Player of the Year award, but it wont help the Spartans finish any higher than eighth in the conference in total defense.

Illinois will improve offensively behind redshirt freshman quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, but finish well into the red in turnover margin for the sixth time in six years under Ron Zook, dropping at least three games in which it earned a substantial edge in total yards.

After another season of clamoring for sophomore MarQuies Gray to make more than the occasional "Wildcat" appearance in place of senior quarterback Adam Weber at the helm of one of the conference's worst offenses, Minnesota fans will get their wish in a near-upset of Iowa in the regular season finale, where Gray will steal the show before coming up just short in the final minutes. But the change won't come in time to save coach Tim Brewster from the axe when the Gophers miss a bowl game.

By sheer volume, Indiana and Purdue quarterbacks Ben Chappell and Robert Marve will spend the season dueling for the league lead in both touchdowns and interceptions, culminating in an aerial orgy of TDs and picks when the Hoosiers visit West Lafayette on Nov. 27. Chappell will come out slightly ahead on both counts on the stat sheet, but Marve will emerge victorious on the field thanks to a two-minute-drill touchdown drive to put the Boilermakers over the top in the last of many, many shootouts.

Purdue receiver Keith Smith will become just the third player in Big Ten history with 100 catches in a single season, but will still come up just shy of his junior totals for yards (1,100) and touchdowns (6).

Northwestern will score a touchdown on a beautifully executed trick play as time expires to pull within a point of a major upset at Penn State, then miss the subsequent PAT kick to send the game to overtime.

 

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