With one week to go, here’s everything you need to know to win a gigantic stash of cash betting college football this fall.
(I moonlighted as a gangster rapper in the offseason. What’d you do?)
Do bet on the eventual champion
Nothing like opening up the third season of Cram Session with a golden nugget like that.
The last 10 BCS champs went a combined 83-38-2 against the spread, with only the 2007 LSU Tigers finishing below .500 against the number. (Obviously, JaMarcus Russell was too hopped up on cough syrup to cover the spread).
So, as I suggested, you should make a habit of betting on the eventual champion. Anyone got a freaking clue who that will be?
My guess - Ohio State. I believe the Buckeyes will overcome one loss with their strength in schedule and reach the title game against a one-loss Big 12 team. But what the hell do I know?
Well, actually, I know that the last five national champions have finished ranked in the Top 5 nationally in pass efficiency defense. I know that six of the last seven champs began the season ranked in the top 5. I know eight of the last nine champs have finished ranked in the top 10 in total defense. So we’re looking for a team in the top 5 with an experienced secondary and effective pass rush.
Second-ranked Ohio State’s secondary features three senior NFL prospects. The best defensive end in the nation Cameron Heyward anchors the front. (Covered him in high school. Absolute beast). I know that the last game Buckeye quarterback Terrelle Pryor played he dominated. I know that the gap between the best of the SEC and rest of the nation is as narrow as it’s been in five years.
I’m backing the Buckeyes every game. Wish me luck.
Do bet the over on Alabama games
You absolutely have to respect the Crimson Tide’s offensive weapons. The backfield tandem of Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson is by far the best in the nation. Julio Jones, arguably the most talented receiver in the nation, highlights a big-time receiving corps. Senior quarterback Greg McElroy threw for 2,508 yards with 17 touchdowns and only four interceptions last season.
This could be a potent, explosive offense … if Saint Nick will drive like a sports car instead of a bulldozer.
Do you realize Alabama attempted only 12 passes against Texas in the BCS Championship Game? The Tide passed just 36 percent of the time last season.
With the defense they had last year, that was all good and well. But that defense isn’t in Tuscaloosa this season. It’s been replaced by a defense that surrendered nine passing touchdowns in a scrimmage.
On one hand, maybe that is an indication that offensive coordinator Jim McElwain plans to open it up. Or maybe that’s just how bad ‘Bama’s defense is.
Either way, oddsmakers better be ready to bump up their totals on games involving the Tide.
Do not buy into the rising powers of the past
While accomplishing very little, Miami and Nebraska have somehow managed to regain their national relevancy. Jeff Stoneback, sports book manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, said he’s received heavy action on both the ‘Canes and Huskers going over their season-win totals. Miami is 8.5 and Nebraska is 10 at most places.
To me, this just reeks of over-eager fans believing in their team’s return to prominence a little too early.
Nebraska, of course, has given us a little more reason to believe than Miami. The Huskers should have beaten Texas and put a big-boy whooping on Arizona in the Holiday Bowl. But how much are you willing to invest in a team without a respected starting quarterback? Coach Bo Pelini told reporters this week that “10 guys may play quarterback.” Obviously, he’s exaggerating, but the fact that last year’s starter, senior Zac Lee, hasn’t been able to separate himself from a redshirts freshman and a sophomore is a little concerning.
Meanwhile, the last time we saw the ‘Canes, Wisconsin was puking on them in the Champs Sports Bowl. Quarterback Jacory Harris was sacked five times in the loss that wasn’t nearly as close as the 20-14 score indicated. But everyone is loving the ‘Canes, calling them legitimate national title contenders, despite a brutal schedule.
I’d lay 7.5 right now with Ohio State against Miami on Sept. 11. Send me your credit card numbers to secure the action.
Don’t get caught up in the hype with these two. The Huskers and ‘Canes simply aren’t as far along as their desperate fan bases want them to be.
Do be careful with USC
The Trojans could implode very easily under the scrutiny and scandal that has left them with little to play for this year. The NCAA seems determined to nail Lane Kiffin, even going as far as interviewing his brother this week about his recruiting practices at Tennessee.
USC has had an unhealthy camp, with multiple players going down and another being suspended. What would happen if they were to do the unthinkable and slip up early? Maybe at home to Virginia or at Minnesota? Seems unlikely, but with really nothing to look forward to, it’s plausible that players and coaches could decide it’s not worth the extra effort if things start to go bad.
On the other hand, USC could come together and take out their frustrations on their opponents. Matt Barkley could escalate his progression and emerge as an elite quarterback. Kiffin could decide to spit in the NCAA’s face by running up the score to prove a point.
The Trojans’ schedule is soft. They could easily be 7-0 and ranked in the top 5 when Oregon visits on Oct. 30. Think the NCAA would be pissed off then?
It’s going to be hard for oddsmakers to accurately gauge the Trojans’ emotions. A sharp handicapper that can get a good feel for the Trojans should have a significant advantage. That’s easier said than done, of course.
Do tell me what the hell you want
Every year, I ask this – What information can I provide in this weekly column that will best help your handicapping? Do you want game breakdowns, predictions and injury reports? Or do you prefer trends, line movements, a collection of hot handicappers’ picks and general notes? I’m sure some of you would be most pleased by pictures of my new girlfriend, but she’s been through a lot and is a little shy these days.
In the end, my goal for this column is to make everyone stinking rich with my picks. In reality, I’ll aim to provide you guys and gal (Sup, Mom?) with the type of information that makes you the college football season more enjoyable. Just tell me what the hell you want.
Oh, and follow me and the Covers crew on Twitter.
(I moonlighted as a gangster rapper in the offseason. What’d you do?)
Do bet on the eventual champion
Nothing like opening up the third season of Cram Session with a golden nugget like that.
The last 10 BCS champs went a combined 83-38-2 against the spread, with only the 2007 LSU Tigers finishing below .500 against the number. (Obviously, JaMarcus Russell was too hopped up on cough syrup to cover the spread).
So, as I suggested, you should make a habit of betting on the eventual champion. Anyone got a freaking clue who that will be?
My guess - Ohio State. I believe the Buckeyes will overcome one loss with their strength in schedule and reach the title game against a one-loss Big 12 team. But what the hell do I know?
Well, actually, I know that the last five national champions have finished ranked in the Top 5 nationally in pass efficiency defense. I know that six of the last seven champs began the season ranked in the top 5. I know eight of the last nine champs have finished ranked in the top 10 in total defense. So we’re looking for a team in the top 5 with an experienced secondary and effective pass rush.
Second-ranked Ohio State’s secondary features three senior NFL prospects. The best defensive end in the nation Cameron Heyward anchors the front. (Covered him in high school. Absolute beast). I know that the last game Buckeye quarterback Terrelle Pryor played he dominated. I know that the gap between the best of the SEC and rest of the nation is as narrow as it’s been in five years.
I’m backing the Buckeyes every game. Wish me luck.
Do bet the over on Alabama games
You absolutely have to respect the Crimson Tide’s offensive weapons. The backfield tandem of Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson is by far the best in the nation. Julio Jones, arguably the most talented receiver in the nation, highlights a big-time receiving corps. Senior quarterback Greg McElroy threw for 2,508 yards with 17 touchdowns and only four interceptions last season.
This could be a potent, explosive offense … if Saint Nick will drive like a sports car instead of a bulldozer.
Do you realize Alabama attempted only 12 passes against Texas in the BCS Championship Game? The Tide passed just 36 percent of the time last season.
With the defense they had last year, that was all good and well. But that defense isn’t in Tuscaloosa this season. It’s been replaced by a defense that surrendered nine passing touchdowns in a scrimmage.
On one hand, maybe that is an indication that offensive coordinator Jim McElwain plans to open it up. Or maybe that’s just how bad ‘Bama’s defense is.
Either way, oddsmakers better be ready to bump up their totals on games involving the Tide.
Do not buy into the rising powers of the past
While accomplishing very little, Miami and Nebraska have somehow managed to regain their national relevancy. Jeff Stoneback, sports book manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, said he’s received heavy action on both the ‘Canes and Huskers going over their season-win totals. Miami is 8.5 and Nebraska is 10 at most places.
To me, this just reeks of over-eager fans believing in their team’s return to prominence a little too early.
Nebraska, of course, has given us a little more reason to believe than Miami. The Huskers should have beaten Texas and put a big-boy whooping on Arizona in the Holiday Bowl. But how much are you willing to invest in a team without a respected starting quarterback? Coach Bo Pelini told reporters this week that “10 guys may play quarterback.” Obviously, he’s exaggerating, but the fact that last year’s starter, senior Zac Lee, hasn’t been able to separate himself from a redshirts freshman and a sophomore is a little concerning.
Meanwhile, the last time we saw the ‘Canes, Wisconsin was puking on them in the Champs Sports Bowl. Quarterback Jacory Harris was sacked five times in the loss that wasn’t nearly as close as the 20-14 score indicated. But everyone is loving the ‘Canes, calling them legitimate national title contenders, despite a brutal schedule.
I’d lay 7.5 right now with Ohio State against Miami on Sept. 11. Send me your credit card numbers to secure the action.
Don’t get caught up in the hype with these two. The Huskers and ‘Canes simply aren’t as far along as their desperate fan bases want them to be.
Do be careful with USC
The Trojans could implode very easily under the scrutiny and scandal that has left them with little to play for this year. The NCAA seems determined to nail Lane Kiffin, even going as far as interviewing his brother this week about his recruiting practices at Tennessee. USC has had an unhealthy camp, with multiple players going down and another being suspended. What would happen if they were to do the unthinkable and slip up early? Maybe at home to Virginia or at Minnesota? Seems unlikely, but with really nothing to look forward to, it’s plausible that players and coaches could decide it’s not worth the extra effort if things start to go bad.
On the other hand, USC could come together and take out their frustrations on their opponents. Matt Barkley could escalate his progression and emerge as an elite quarterback. Kiffin could decide to spit in the NCAA’s face by running up the score to prove a point.
The Trojans’ schedule is soft. They could easily be 7-0 and ranked in the top 5 when Oregon visits on Oct. 30. Think the NCAA would be pissed off then?
It’s going to be hard for oddsmakers to accurately gauge the Trojans’ emotions. A sharp handicapper that can get a good feel for the Trojans should have a significant advantage. That’s easier said than done, of course.
Do tell me what the hell you want
Every year, I ask this – What information can I provide in this weekly column that will best help your handicapping? Do you want game breakdowns, predictions and injury reports? Or do you prefer trends, line movements, a collection of hot handicappers’ picks and general notes? I’m sure some of you would be most pleased by pictures of my new girlfriend, but she’s been through a lot and is a little shy these days.
In the end, my goal for this column is to make everyone stinking rich with my picks. In reality, I’ll aim to provide you guys and gal (Sup, Mom?) with the type of information that makes you the college football season more enjoyable. Just tell me what the hell you want.
Oh, and follow me and the Covers crew on Twitter.
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