Jay Christensen covered college football, among other sports, for the Los Angeles Times and produces the popular college football blog TheWizofOdds.com.
The Big Ten will become the Big 12, the Big 12 will become the Big 10 and the Pac-10 will become the 12 pack, or something like that.
It was a dizzying offseason for college football, one that reaffirmed the need to follow the sport year-round. Do otherwise and suffer the consequences each fall when it's time to smack down a few simoleons. Nonetheless, there are always slackers in the crowd. Fortunately, trained professionals such as myself help guide the uninformed into the new season.
Thus, here is a look at what to sell and buy as we inch toward the 2010 season:
Miami (over/under regular season victories 8.5) - Sell.
When last spotted, the speedy Hurricanes were getting pushed around by a bunch of slow-footed Badgers from Wisconsin. How bad was the Miami's 20-14 loss in the Champs Sports Bowl? The Badgers outgained the Hurricanes, 430-249. Jacory Harris for Heisman? Scott Tolzien was the better quarterback that Dec. 29 evening in Orlando. Miami has road games at Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Clemson and Georgia Tech. There is no margin for error here and frankly, the Hurricanes aren't good enough to top the number.
Notre Dame (over/under 7.5) - Buy.
Brian Kelly has been given the Herculean task of cleaning up the mess left by Charlie Weis. And if you've ever taken a look at Weis, you can only imagine the size of that mess. The Fighting Irish will struggle early because Kelly is dumping the pro-style offense for the spread and going from a 4-3 to 3-4 on defense. By mid-October, Notre Dame will be cruising, in part because peashooters such as Western Michigan, Navy, Tulsa and Army appear on the schedule. By season's end, Kelly will have the better team when his Fighting Irish travel to USC.
USC (over/under 9.5) - Sell.
Foolish pollsters have ignored many of the problems that brought the 2009 team to its knees. The linebackers remain on the smallish side and the offensive line has to be rebuilt. Yes, the early schedule is favorable, but outside of a trip to Arizona State, there won't be an easy game once October rolls around. Bottom line: They quit paying players at USC and that's never a good thing.
UCLA (over/under 5.5) - Buy.
The fall or Troy should benefit one Rick Neuheisel, who has been anything but slick in his first two seasons at Westwood. The changes start on offense. The Bruins are switching to the Pistol, which was developed by Nevada's Chris Ault. This will pump life into the running game and open the field to talented receivers Nelson Rosario and Taylor Embree. The special teams will be special, with kicker Kai Forbath and punter Jeff Locke. Keep an eye on Colorado transfer Josh Smith, who will electrify the return units.
Michigan (over/under 7) - Sell.
Rich Rodriguez is 8-16 in two seasons at Ann Arbor, and that doesn't cut it for fans of college football's winningest program. Michigan's secondary, which features only one player who has started in college, will be targeted all season. Where's Charles Woodson when you need him? To top it off, the NCAA is slapping the program with sanctions. The team will likely quit on Rich Rod by early November and he will be gone by season's end, making way for Jim Harbaugh's triumphant return to Ann Arbor.
Georgia Tech (over/under 8) - Buy.
For some reason, Paul Johnson's body of work continues to go unappreciated. This guy went 43-19 in his final five seasons at Navy and has won 20 games in two seasons as Yellow Jacket coach. Still don't believe in him? Consider this: No coach has won as many games as Johnson (127) over their first 13 seasons. Joshua Nesbitt is back at quarterback after rushing and passing for over 1,000 yards in 2009, and the defense, now under former Virginia coach Al Groh, is switching to the 3-4.
Arkansas (over/under 8.5) - Sell.
There is a lot of hype surrounding this team, but why? The Razorbacks eked out a 20-17 victory in overtime against East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl. Quarterback Ryan Mallett was named the game's most valuable player, but he would have been on the losing side if not for East Carolina kicker Ben Hartman, who missed two field goals late in regulation and another in overtime. The Hogs will get fat on their usual diet of creampuff nonconference opponents (Tennessee Tech, Louisiana Monroe, Texas El Paso), but the Southeastern Conference is not a forgiving place.
Ohio State (over/under 10.5) - Buy.
Terrelle Pryor was named the Big Ten's most exciting and most overrated player in an informal poll of players at the league's media days. Pryor isn't going to win any awards for his passing, but he's the best athlete in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes seldom lose at home, and they play eight times at the Horseshoe. There are only two challenging road games - Wisconsin and Iowa. Ohio State might lose once, but not twice. This team is not only going to the BCS title game, but will win it.
The Big Ten will become the Big 12, the Big 12 will become the Big 10 and the Pac-10 will become the 12 pack, or something like that.
It was a dizzying offseason for college football, one that reaffirmed the need to follow the sport year-round. Do otherwise and suffer the consequences each fall when it's time to smack down a few simoleons. Nonetheless, there are always slackers in the crowd. Fortunately, trained professionals such as myself help guide the uninformed into the new season.
Thus, here is a look at what to sell and buy as we inch toward the 2010 season:
Miami (over/under regular season victories 8.5) - Sell.
When last spotted, the speedy Hurricanes were getting pushed around by a bunch of slow-footed Badgers from Wisconsin. How bad was the Miami's 20-14 loss in the Champs Sports Bowl? The Badgers outgained the Hurricanes, 430-249. Jacory Harris for Heisman? Scott Tolzien was the better quarterback that Dec. 29 evening in Orlando. Miami has road games at Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Clemson and Georgia Tech. There is no margin for error here and frankly, the Hurricanes aren't good enough to top the number.
Notre Dame (over/under 7.5) - Buy.
Brian Kelly has been given the Herculean task of cleaning up the mess left by Charlie Weis. And if you've ever taken a look at Weis, you can only imagine the size of that mess. The Fighting Irish will struggle early because Kelly is dumping the pro-style offense for the spread and going from a 4-3 to 3-4 on defense. By mid-October, Notre Dame will be cruising, in part because peashooters such as Western Michigan, Navy, Tulsa and Army appear on the schedule. By season's end, Kelly will have the better team when his Fighting Irish travel to USC.
USC (over/under 9.5) - Sell.
Foolish pollsters have ignored many of the problems that brought the 2009 team to its knees. The linebackers remain on the smallish side and the offensive line has to be rebuilt. Yes, the early schedule is favorable, but outside of a trip to Arizona State, there won't be an easy game once October rolls around. Bottom line: They quit paying players at USC and that's never a good thing.
UCLA (over/under 5.5) - Buy.
The fall or Troy should benefit one Rick Neuheisel, who has been anything but slick in his first two seasons at Westwood. The changes start on offense. The Bruins are switching to the Pistol, which was developed by Nevada's Chris Ault. This will pump life into the running game and open the field to talented receivers Nelson Rosario and Taylor Embree. The special teams will be special, with kicker Kai Forbath and punter Jeff Locke. Keep an eye on Colorado transfer Josh Smith, who will electrify the return units.
Michigan (over/under 7) - Sell.
Rich Rodriguez is 8-16 in two seasons at Ann Arbor, and that doesn't cut it for fans of college football's winningest program. Michigan's secondary, which features only one player who has started in college, will be targeted all season. Where's Charles Woodson when you need him? To top it off, the NCAA is slapping the program with sanctions. The team will likely quit on Rich Rod by early November and he will be gone by season's end, making way for Jim Harbaugh's triumphant return to Ann Arbor.
Georgia Tech (over/under 8) - Buy.
For some reason, Paul Johnson's body of work continues to go unappreciated. This guy went 43-19 in his final five seasons at Navy and has won 20 games in two seasons as Yellow Jacket coach. Still don't believe in him? Consider this: No coach has won as many games as Johnson (127) over their first 13 seasons. Joshua Nesbitt is back at quarterback after rushing and passing for over 1,000 yards in 2009, and the defense, now under former Virginia coach Al Groh, is switching to the 3-4.
Arkansas (over/under 8.5) - Sell.
There is a lot of hype surrounding this team, but why? The Razorbacks eked out a 20-17 victory in overtime against East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl. Quarterback Ryan Mallett was named the game's most valuable player, but he would have been on the losing side if not for East Carolina kicker Ben Hartman, who missed two field goals late in regulation and another in overtime. The Hogs will get fat on their usual diet of creampuff nonconference opponents (Tennessee Tech, Louisiana Monroe, Texas El Paso), but the Southeastern Conference is not a forgiving place.
Ohio State (over/under 10.5) - Buy.
Terrelle Pryor was named the Big Ten's most exciting and most overrated player in an informal poll of players at the league's media days. Pryor isn't going to win any awards for his passing, but he's the best athlete in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes seldom lose at home, and they play eight times at the Horseshoe. There are only two challenging road games - Wisconsin and Iowa. Ohio State might lose once, but not twice. This team is not only going to the BCS title game, but will win it.
Comments