It always feels like Christmas when the first week of the NFL season rolls around - though if you’re an avid NFL bettor, this week’s lines have to remind you of unwrapping and then secretly re-wrapping those gifts under the tree in the dead of night with your parents tucked away in bed, weeks before Christmas morning.
That’s because we’ve had lines for this week’s games for months now, so there aren’t many surprises on the board at this point. Most of these lines are pretty stable, making this edition of Opening Line Report a little different than you’ll see for the rest of the season.
But that doesn’t mean we don’t have a lot to talk about. With injuries, suspensions, final preseason cuts and transactions, the betting public is reacting
accordingly, forcing sportsbooks to modify their lines on a daily basis. Right now Week 1 totals aren’t moving much, so we’ll focus on the spreads for this week.
All the fun gets going Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl champions New Orleans Saints favored by 4.5 points against Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers.
“We expect the Saints-Vikings game on Thursday night to be the most bet game of the week and will also set the tone for the for the rest of the weekend’s betting,” says Bodog.com Sportsbook Manager Richard Gardner. “We foresee the public coming in on the Saints because they are the defending Super Bowl champions and are still considered by many to be America’s team.”
Gardner says this line was based on last year’s NFC Championship game, which opened with New Orleans favored by 4. 5 points as well. Despite the media whirlwind in the offseason, Brett Favre’s annual retirement saga didn’t impact sportsbooks as much as you might think – a topic Tim Sullivan examined last month.
Outside of the season opener, the books expect heavy action on this week’s nationally televised games, as usual. That means you should keep an eye on square bettors impacting the lines for Baltimore at New York Jets -3, San Diego at Kansas City +5.5, and Dallas at Washington +3.5.
The New York Jets finally got cornerback Darrelle Revis signed on the last day of training camp and he’ll be in the lineup Monday night. Meanwhile, Baltimore is expected to have newly-acquired T.J. Houshmandzadeh on the field too.
The Chargers have gone through a lot of changes since last season, but Gardner says bettors are coming in heavy on them in this road game against the Chiefs. The Chargers continue to explore trade options with disgruntled wideout Vincent Jackson, but nothing has panned out yet. San Diego will have a different look on offense without him as it leans on Malcom Floyd to pick up the slack along with rookie running back Ryan Matthews in the backfield.
Not surprisingly, Dallas Cowboys supporters have already weighed in heavily on their team’s first game of the season. There’s a lot of Super Bowl hype surrounding the ‘Boys this season and Gardner says they’re one of the most bet teams for Week 1, along with the Chargers.
Pulling in a large handle on big market teams like the Saints, Chargers, and Cowboys is far from shocking for the books, but there are a couple interesting betting trends developing for Week 1.
“Two surprise teams the public is betting heavily - futures, win totals, and Week 1 betting - are the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Francisco 49ers,” says Garnder. “These two teams are seeing significantly more action than in seasons past.”
Cincinnati is set as a 4-point underdog at New England after opening at +6, while San Francisco is a 3-point favorite at Seattle after opening at +1.
“The reason for the movement in the 49ers vs. Seahawks game is because of the early betting patterns on the game,” Gardner says. “Many people see the 49ers as one of the sleeper teams this season and have bet them heavily to win the Super Bowl and conference.”
“Combine that with the fact that the majority of the sharp money was also on the 49ers, the book was left in a position where they were exposed on the favorites and not taking much action (sharp or otherwise) on the dog. So the line has been moving in the 49ers’ favor until we started seeing some two-sided action on the matchup.”
Gardner targets two other games on this week’s schedule to keep an eye on before kickoff: Atlanta at Pittsburgh +2.5 and Green Bay at Philadelphia +3.
Atlanta-Pittsburgh opened as a pick ‘em and Gardner says the line movement has to do with Pittsburgh’s questions at quarterback with Ben Roethlisberger suspended for the first four games of the season and backup Byron Leftwich out with an injury.
“It looked like Byron Leftwich had the inside track for the job, but a sprained MCL put him on the shelf for 4-6 weeks and the Steelers are asking themselves a familiar question, who will start come Sunday?” says Gardner. “This question which has yet to be answered by the Steelers has made the line bounce around since it opened.”
Gardner points to quarterback issues as the main reason the Philadelphia Eagles have gone from a pick ‘em to 3-point underdogs as well. Aaron Rodgers had a fantastic preseason, while it looks as though Kevin Kolb is still getting used to the starting gig in Philly. Kolb failed to throw a touchdown in preseason play.
“While nobody puts much stock into the preseason it is tough to look past these two teams with QBs going in seemingly opposite directions and most bettors have bet the Packers early and drove the line up,” says Gardner.
That’s because we’ve had lines for this week’s games for months now, so there aren’t many surprises on the board at this point. Most of these lines are pretty stable, making this edition of Opening Line Report a little different than you’ll see for the rest of the season.
But that doesn’t mean we don’t have a lot to talk about. With injuries, suspensions, final preseason cuts and transactions, the betting public is reacting
accordingly, forcing sportsbooks to modify their lines on a daily basis. Right now Week 1 totals aren’t moving much, so we’ll focus on the spreads for this week.All the fun gets going Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl champions New Orleans Saints favored by 4.5 points against Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers.
“We expect the Saints-Vikings game on Thursday night to be the most bet game of the week and will also set the tone for the for the rest of the weekend’s betting,” says Bodog.com Sportsbook Manager Richard Gardner. “We foresee the public coming in on the Saints because they are the defending Super Bowl champions and are still considered by many to be America’s team.”
Gardner says this line was based on last year’s NFC Championship game, which opened with New Orleans favored by 4. 5 points as well. Despite the media whirlwind in the offseason, Brett Favre’s annual retirement saga didn’t impact sportsbooks as much as you might think – a topic Tim Sullivan examined last month.
Outside of the season opener, the books expect heavy action on this week’s nationally televised games, as usual. That means you should keep an eye on square bettors impacting the lines for Baltimore at New York Jets -3, San Diego at Kansas City +5.5, and Dallas at Washington +3.5.
The New York Jets finally got cornerback Darrelle Revis signed on the last day of training camp and he’ll be in the lineup Monday night. Meanwhile, Baltimore is expected to have newly-acquired T.J. Houshmandzadeh on the field too.
The Chargers have gone through a lot of changes since last season, but Gardner says bettors are coming in heavy on them in this road game against the Chiefs. The Chargers continue to explore trade options with disgruntled wideout Vincent Jackson, but nothing has panned out yet. San Diego will have a different look on offense without him as it leans on Malcom Floyd to pick up the slack along with rookie running back Ryan Matthews in the backfield.
Not surprisingly, Dallas Cowboys supporters have already weighed in heavily on their team’s first game of the season. There’s a lot of Super Bowl hype surrounding the ‘Boys this season and Gardner says they’re one of the most bet teams for Week 1, along with the Chargers.
Pulling in a large handle on big market teams like the Saints, Chargers, and Cowboys is far from shocking for the books, but there are a couple interesting betting trends developing for Week 1.
“Two surprise teams the public is betting heavily - futures, win totals, and Week 1 betting - are the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Francisco 49ers,” says Garnder. “These two teams are seeing significantly more action than in seasons past.”
Cincinnati is set as a 4-point underdog at New England after opening at +6, while San Francisco is a 3-point favorite at Seattle after opening at +1.“The reason for the movement in the 49ers vs. Seahawks game is because of the early betting patterns on the game,” Gardner says. “Many people see the 49ers as one of the sleeper teams this season and have bet them heavily to win the Super Bowl and conference.”
“Combine that with the fact that the majority of the sharp money was also on the 49ers, the book was left in a position where they were exposed on the favorites and not taking much action (sharp or otherwise) on the dog. So the line has been moving in the 49ers’ favor until we started seeing some two-sided action on the matchup.”
Gardner targets two other games on this week’s schedule to keep an eye on before kickoff: Atlanta at Pittsburgh +2.5 and Green Bay at Philadelphia +3.
Atlanta-Pittsburgh opened as a pick ‘em and Gardner says the line movement has to do with Pittsburgh’s questions at quarterback with Ben Roethlisberger suspended for the first four games of the season and backup Byron Leftwich out with an injury.
“It looked like Byron Leftwich had the inside track for the job, but a sprained MCL put him on the shelf for 4-6 weeks and the Steelers are asking themselves a familiar question, who will start come Sunday?” says Gardner. “This question which has yet to be answered by the Steelers has made the line bounce around since it opened.”
Gardner points to quarterback issues as the main reason the Philadelphia Eagles have gone from a pick ‘em to 3-point underdogs as well. Aaron Rodgers had a fantastic preseason, while it looks as though Kevin Kolb is still getting used to the starting gig in Philly. Kolb failed to throw a touchdown in preseason play.
“While nobody puts much stock into the preseason it is tough to look past these two teams with QBs going in seemingly opposite directions and most bettors have bet the Packers early and drove the line up,” says Gardner.
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