As the baseball season winds down, it’s easy to fall in love with the season-long numbers.
But over the course of a 162-game campaign, things can change. A few struggling teams manage to turn things around down the stretch, while several contending squads wilt in the heat of the playoff race.
Then again, some things don’t change, like the ineptitude of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Here’s a look at five profitable wagering strategies since the beginning of August – three that might surprise you and two that probably shouldn’t.
Backing the Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore's second managerial change of the 2010 season paid off bigtime for Orioles backers. Since bringing in Buck Showalter, the birds have gone 19-15 - a drastic improvement from the 32-73 record they had under Dave Trembley and Juan Samuel.
If that looks impressive, just consider that the O's have been underdogs in all but four of those games, cashing as dogs of +150 or higher eight times.
Improved pitching and defense have been the keys to the Orioles' resurgence. Baltimore allowed 5.94 runs per game in June and July, but has cut that allowance down to 4.24 runs per game since August 1. The team has gone under the total in 21 of 34 games as well.
Fading the St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis was leading the NL Central when the calendar flipped from July to August. Now, the Cards are a longshot to even make the postseason, trailing the Reds by six games in the division and five games behind the Phillies for the wildcard. St. Louis is 13-17 in its 30 games since August 1 and 6-14 in its last 20.
Cardinals faders have enjoyed the ride. St. Louis was favored in 27 of its last 30 games, falling as faves of -200 or higher on four occasions.
Backing the Houston Astros
Dealing longtime ace Roy Oswalt and struggling slugger Lance Berkman at the trade deadline might actually have lit a spark under the Astros. Houston is a sizzling 20-13 since the beginning of August and a .500 season (a pipe dream two months ago) is now looking like a possibility.
J.A. Happ, acquired from the Phillies in the Oswalt trade, has allowed three runs or less in seven of eight starts in a Houston uniform. Wandy Rodriguez has also turned things around after a brutal start to the year and Brett Myers continues to be one of the most underrated hurlers in the game.
Fading the Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are a pretty safe team to fade at the best of times, but they've been especially horrible over the past six weeks. Pittsburgh is 9-24 in its last 33 contests as it stumbles towards the worst record in the league.
The Pirates have won one (yes, one) road game since July 28. If you're not interested in laying the big chalk to bet against the Pirates on the road, think about giving the runline a shot. Even when catching 1.5 runs, Pittsburgh is 2-13 against the spread in its last 15 games away from home.
Betting the Seattle Mariners under the total
The Mariners' offense has been so bad this season, rumor has it that players are even having trouble scoring with their own wives. Seattle has been limited to three runs or less in 14 of its past 15 games. The one exception was August 25 at Boston, when the Mariners exploded for four.
An impotent offense and a solid pitching staff is an excellent formula for an under ticket,and Seattle has cashed those with great regularity. The Mariners have gone over the total in only 12 of 33 games since the beginning of August.
But over the course of a 162-game campaign, things can change. A few struggling teams manage to turn things around down the stretch, while several contending squads wilt in the heat of the playoff race.
Then again, some things don’t change, like the ineptitude of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Here’s a look at five profitable wagering strategies since the beginning of August – three that might surprise you and two that probably shouldn’t.
Backing the Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore's second managerial change of the 2010 season paid off bigtime for Orioles backers. Since bringing in Buck Showalter, the birds have gone 19-15 - a drastic improvement from the 32-73 record they had under Dave Trembley and Juan Samuel. If that looks impressive, just consider that the O's have been underdogs in all but four of those games, cashing as dogs of +150 or higher eight times.
Improved pitching and defense have been the keys to the Orioles' resurgence. Baltimore allowed 5.94 runs per game in June and July, but has cut that allowance down to 4.24 runs per game since August 1. The team has gone under the total in 21 of 34 games as well.
Fading the St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis was leading the NL Central when the calendar flipped from July to August. Now, the Cards are a longshot to even make the postseason, trailing the Reds by six games in the division and five games behind the Phillies for the wildcard. St. Louis is 13-17 in its 30 games since August 1 and 6-14 in its last 20.
Cardinals faders have enjoyed the ride. St. Louis was favored in 27 of its last 30 games, falling as faves of -200 or higher on four occasions.
Backing the Houston Astros
Dealing longtime ace Roy Oswalt and struggling slugger Lance Berkman at the trade deadline might actually have lit a spark under the Astros. Houston is a sizzling 20-13 since the beginning of August and a .500 season (a pipe dream two months ago) is now looking like a possibility.J.A. Happ, acquired from the Phillies in the Oswalt trade, has allowed three runs or less in seven of eight starts in a Houston uniform. Wandy Rodriguez has also turned things around after a brutal start to the year and Brett Myers continues to be one of the most underrated hurlers in the game.
Fading the Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are a pretty safe team to fade at the best of times, but they've been especially horrible over the past six weeks. Pittsburgh is 9-24 in its last 33 contests as it stumbles towards the worst record in the league.
The Pirates have won one (yes, one) road game since July 28. If you're not interested in laying the big chalk to bet against the Pirates on the road, think about giving the runline a shot. Even when catching 1.5 runs, Pittsburgh is 2-13 against the spread in its last 15 games away from home.
Betting the Seattle Mariners under the total
The Mariners' offense has been so bad this season, rumor has it that players are even having trouble scoring with their own wives. Seattle has been limited to three runs or less in 14 of its past 15 games. The one exception was August 25 at Boston, when the Mariners exploded for four.
An impotent offense and a solid pitching staff is an excellent formula for an under ticket,and Seattle has cashed those with great regularity. The Mariners have gone over the total in only 12 of 33 games since the beginning of August.
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