NFL spread sheet: No repeat of 2009 feeding frenzy

NFL spread sheet: No repeat of 2009 feeding frenzy

 

The Great NFL Feeding Frenzy of 2009 started about this time last year. The really, really good teams were scheduled to play the really, really bad teams and took full advantage.

For the first six weeks of the season, every week was Shark Week. The Clevelands, Tampa Bays, Detroits and St. Louises of the world never had a chance. Even teams with a little talent, like Washington and Tennessee, sustained collateral damage.
 
Cleveland started with four straight losses then, to prove it was no fluke, followed that up with a seven-game losing streak.

Showing slight improvement from 2008, Detroit began the year 1-8.

In St. Louis, assistant coaches were discreetly removing sharp objects from the office of head coach Steve Spagnuolo when the Rams were outscored 109-27 in one three-game stretch on the way to a seven-game losing streak at the beginning of the year.

Tampa Bay, not to be undone, opened with seven consecutive losses, No. 7 being a 35-7 clunker versus the Patriots in a game that may have soured British football fans on the game for a generation.

The waters were poisoned so badly in Tennessee that even Chris Johnson’s amazing rushing season couldn’t stop the Titans from putting up six straight defeats off the starting line before order was restored.
 
By the time the carnage had ended a half-dozen teams were already out of the playoff chase before department stores even started putting chintzy Halloween costumes on the shelves. And since sports is a zero-sum activity, some teams had to be getting fat.

It’s no wonder New Orleans and Indianapolis made runs at 16-0. Office survivor pools went on and on as double-digit spreads were offered every week and upsets were rare. In a league in which the talent difference between the good and bad teams can be negligible, it was a bizarre start to a season.

Never before were so many bad teams clustered together at the bottom and the league may never again see the likes of it.
 
Almost definitely not this year. Opening-day lines are tight almost across the board, with the biggest number being the touchdown the Giant give the Panthers in New York.

The bad teams (Cleveland/Tampa Bay) play each other and the good teams (New Orleans/Minnesota, Cincinnati/New England) do likewise. Other bad teams (Washington, Kansas City, St. Louis) open at home, resulting a 6-point line swing.
 
One fact/observation about each division
 
NFC East – Bettors apparently have not been impressed with the Eagles so far. They open at home against Green Bay and the line (PK to start) has shifted three points toward the Packers.
 
NFC South – Hard to judge by exhibitions, but the Falcons’ defense seems to have turned it up a notch.
 
NFC North – Chicago Sun-Times had this item about Jay Cutler, the comment courtesy of an unnamed (for pretty good reason) advance scout: “He's got this everything-is-going-to-be-OK attitude. I don't believe it for a minute. I think he lacks confidence in his offensive line and isn't on the same page with his receivers.” Other than that, he’s ready to roll.
 
NFC West – Looks like the Niners have a problem with Michael Crabtree, who didn’t play in any of the exhibitions and reportedly has pissed off veterans with his entitlement attitude.
 
AFC East – Let’s assume there is a lockout next year. Let’s assume football starts again the following season. Had Darrelle Revis not signed with the Jets, he would have gone 32 months without playing in a game (January 2010 to September 2012).
 
AFC South – You sold on the Texans? Me neither. The record says 9-7, but they were really 8-8 last season (New England didn’t try too hard in the last game). No playoffs this season = no job for Gary Kubiak next year and the whole league knows it.
 
AFC North – Ben Roethlisberger isn’t off the hook yet. There’s the small matter of that sexual assault civil case in Nevada. That state’s Supreme Court is in the process of deciding whether the trial involving his alleged assault of a casino worker will be held in Lake Tahoe or Reno.
 
AFC West – Two years ago, the Chargers won this division at 8-8. It might happen again. In fact, how about a four-way tie with everyone at 8-8 and everyone going 3-3 in the division?
 
Manning deal or no deal?

Author and Providence Journal columnist Bill Reynolds says this about salaries that pro athletes take down:

“Let’s say we blow up the whole system and start from scratch. Then you say this to the athletes: ‘We’ll give you $250,000 to play. Nothing more. You’ll get meal money every day and when we’re on the road you get to stay in five-star hotels. Take it or leave it.’” 

Very few would leave. Jealousy, ego, (modified) free enterprise and the bargained right to leave one team for another drive the salary structure to ridiculous levels, even with a salary cap like the NFL has had in place.

The market is driven higher and higher and one bad contract (the Raiders’ Nmandi Asomugha, for example) drives it even higher.

Turn the spotlight now on Peyton Manning, whose $98-mllion, seven-year contract in its dying stages.

Unlike Darrelle Revis, Manning hasn’t threatened to not play. But, as the season starts, he has to be thinking about the future and how things will shake down if a knee buckles while he takes a hit from his blind side.

Manning says he has no interest in playing anywhere else and the Colts say – perhaps trying to scare off other teams and keep the asking price semi-reasonable – that a deal will get done eventually and that Manning will be the highest-paid player in the game.

Maybe the reportedly agreement between the Patriots and Brady will accelerate things in Indianapolis. Until then, injuries have to be on Manning’s mind.
 
Antonio Cromartie NFL quote of the week

Dick Butkus: "I wouldn't ever set out to hurt anyone deliberately unless it was important -- like a league game."
 

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