I notice a change in myself as the NFL preseason winds down to a merciful end and Week 1 comes calling. All of a sudden, the most meaningless, everyday tasks take on newfound and intense importance.
A visit to the grocery store becomes an over/under battle between me and the cash register. I curse the missus for no-looking some sort of ridiculous hair product into the cart while I was checking out the frozen pizza sales, putting me 10 clams over the $120-total I had in my head.
At the gas pump I become unreasonably angry at squeezing out a $30.01. I have buck bets on everything from the number of times my waitress says “um” during a nice meal on the town to the over/under on the longest wedding speech you’re forced to endure on the hottest August day in recent memory.
For me, this sort of stuff is my preseason. It’s a mindset thing and you have to get yourself prepared one way or another. Of course, I subjected myself to as many first halves of as many preseason games as I could possibly stomach, but that can just be some awful stuff to endure. Sure it’s football, but just barely, what with the vanilla offenses and blown coverage and missed assignments. You can only take so much of it.
That’s why it’s important to remember that these problems don’t magically disappear for teams once Week 1 hits. Offenses are normally a few steps behind defenses at this time of year, but totals at your sportsbook probably don’t reflect that much.
Your everyday Joe Sportsbettor loves him some overs so he can keep cheering and guzzling Buds deep into the fourth quarter. So, most books have no choice but to bump up their totals a bit. Of course, it all depends on the individual matchups on the board and luckily for us, we have a pile of big games on the Week 1 schedule.
Each week I’ll roll out three over/under picks. Do with them what you will – fawn over them or fade them. We’re all in this together, kids. Let’s make the most of it.
Baltimore at N.Y. Jets (-2.5, 35.5)
These aren’t your little brother’s Baltimore Ravens, friends. Yes, most of the names on the jerseys are still the same, but it has been a long time since they scared the bejeasus out of opposing offenses like they once did.
Don’t get me wrong, they’ll still have a strong defense, but they’re at least a few steps slower than they once were and without Ed Reed patrolling the secondary for at least the first six weeks, that’ll be even more obvious.
The New York defense should be as good as advertised – at some point this year. I’m just not sure we’ll see it right out of the gate. This total just looks too low for a Week 1 affair.
Pick: Over
Indianapolis at Houston (+2, 47)
Is this the year the Houston Texans finally solve the Colts? I’m not sure. They do look like they have a shot, but then again, I’ve been saying the same thing about the Texans for the last four years. One thing is for certain: Houston will come out firing against the Colts.
At this point, we know what we’re going to get from Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub – explosions. If running back Arian Foster is as good as he looks so far, the Texans are going to be even more dangerous this season.
Peyton and the Colts have a lot to prove this season too and I’d hate to be the team that they take out last season’s playoff frustrations on. Expect to see a lot of this matchup on the Red Zone channel on Sunday.
Pick: Over
Carolina at N.Y. Giants (-7, 41)
About all you need to know about New York’s preseason is Brandon Jacobs is really, really unhappy about sitting behind Ahmad Bradshaw on the running back depth chart and Eli Manning nearly had his skull taken off thanks to his matador offensive line. The Giants have offensive weapons, though I’m not sure they’re ready to make the most of them just yet.
A Week 1 matchup against the Panthers won’t do anything to help them out, either. Carolina’s defense lost six players since last season, including Julius Peppers, and will go through some rough spots with a young team. But they are what they are - a team that relies on the run and tough defense to keep them close.
Pick: Under
A visit to the grocery store becomes an over/under battle between me and the cash register. I curse the missus for no-looking some sort of ridiculous hair product into the cart while I was checking out the frozen pizza sales, putting me 10 clams over the $120-total I had in my head.
At the gas pump I become unreasonably angry at squeezing out a $30.01. I have buck bets on everything from the number of times my waitress says “um” during a nice meal on the town to the over/under on the longest wedding speech you’re forced to endure on the hottest August day in recent memory.
For me, this sort of stuff is my preseason. It’s a mindset thing and you have to get yourself prepared one way or another. Of course, I subjected myself to as many first halves of as many preseason games as I could possibly stomach, but that can just be some awful stuff to endure. Sure it’s football, but just barely, what with the vanilla offenses and blown coverage and missed assignments. You can only take so much of it.
That’s why it’s important to remember that these problems don’t magically disappear for teams once Week 1 hits. Offenses are normally a few steps behind defenses at this time of year, but totals at your sportsbook probably don’t reflect that much.
Your everyday Joe Sportsbettor loves him some overs so he can keep cheering and guzzling Buds deep into the fourth quarter. So, most books have no choice but to bump up their totals a bit. Of course, it all depends on the individual matchups on the board and luckily for us, we have a pile of big games on the Week 1 schedule.
Each week I’ll roll out three over/under picks. Do with them what you will – fawn over them or fade them. We’re all in this together, kids. Let’s make the most of it.
Baltimore at N.Y. Jets (-2.5, 35.5)
These aren’t your little brother’s Baltimore Ravens, friends. Yes, most of the names on the jerseys are still the same, but it has been a long time since they scared the bejeasus out of opposing offenses like they once did.
Don’t get me wrong, they’ll still have a strong defense, but they’re at least a few steps slower than they once were and without Ed Reed patrolling the secondary for at least the first six weeks, that’ll be even more obvious. The New York defense should be as good as advertised – at some point this year. I’m just not sure we’ll see it right out of the gate. This total just looks too low for a Week 1 affair.
Pick: Over
Indianapolis at Houston (+2, 47)
Is this the year the Houston Texans finally solve the Colts? I’m not sure. They do look like they have a shot, but then again, I’ve been saying the same thing about the Texans for the last four years. One thing is for certain: Houston will come out firing against the Colts.
At this point, we know what we’re going to get from Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub – explosions. If running back Arian Foster is as good as he looks so far, the Texans are going to be even more dangerous this season.
Peyton and the Colts have a lot to prove this season too and I’d hate to be the team that they take out last season’s playoff frustrations on. Expect to see a lot of this matchup on the Red Zone channel on Sunday.
Pick: Over
Carolina at N.Y. Giants (-7, 41)
About all you need to know about New York’s preseason is Brandon Jacobs is really, really unhappy about sitting behind Ahmad Bradshaw on the running back depth chart and Eli Manning nearly had his skull taken off thanks to his matador offensive line. The Giants have offensive weapons, though I’m not sure they’re ready to make the most of them just yet.
A Week 1 matchup against the Panthers won’t do anything to help them out, either. Carolina’s defense lost six players since last season, including Julius Peppers, and will go through some rough spots with a young team. But they are what they are - a team that relies on the run and tough defense to keep them close.
Pick: Under
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