Sports bettors are taught from their first wager to respect the home underdog. But often times we give them too much respect.
Home dogs have gotten off to a hot start this season, covering the spread at a 60 percent clip. That won’t last. In 2009, home dogs were the worst bet on the board. They covered just 47.4 percent, the worst percentage out of home favorites, road favorites and road underdogs.
Over the last 10 seasons, home underdogs are 1,307-1,228-49 against the spread. That’s just barely over 50 percent. Three-point home dogs are 496-487-11. Double-digit home dogs have a remarkably similar success rate, 496-485-11.
Those results aren’t making anyone rich.
“There are short cycles in which either home or road numbers will show a small advantage,” Covers Expert and Las Vegas line analyst David Malinsky explained. “But the marketplace does such a good job at flattening them out that any long-term research reveals no major edges - over a 10-year period, for instance, there is almost nothing that will show an appreciable edge.”
There are, however, a few teams that have embraced the role of home dog on a consistent basis. And, of course, others who could have had the entire U.S. Military behind them, and it wouldn’t matter.
As we head into Week 3, keep an eye out for the worst and best home dogs.
WORST HOME DOGS
(ATS record as a home underdog over last 10 seasons)
Army Black Knights: 12-25-1
Mark the calendar: vs. Temple, Oct. 9; vs. Air Force, Nov. 6.
Indiana Hoosiers: 13-23
Mark the calendar: vs. Michigan, Oct. 2; vs. Iowa, Nov. 6; vs. Penn State, Nov. 20.
Duke Blue Devils: 16-30
Mark the calendar: vs. Alabama, Saturday; vs. Miami, Oct. 16; vs. Virginia, Nov. 6; vs. Boston College, Nov. 13; vs. North Carolina, Nov. 27.
Baylor Bears: 13-26-1
Mark the calendar: vs. Texas A&M, Nov. 13; vs. Oklahoma, Nov. 20
BEST HOME DOGS
Rice Owls: 18-8-2
Mark your calendar: vs. Northwestern, Saturday; vs. Baylor, Sept 25; vs. SMU, Oct. 2; vs. Houston, Oct. 16.
Virginia Cavaliers: 18-9
Mark the calendar: vs. Florida State, Oct. 2; vs. North Carolina, Oct. 16; vs. Miami, Oct. 30.
Cincinnati Bearcats: 12-5
Mark your calendar: vs. Oklahoma, Sept. 25; vs. Pittsburgh, Dec. 4.
Wake Forest: 14-7-1
Mark your calendar: vs. Georgia Tech, Oct. 2; vs. Clemson, Nov. 20.
UConn: 13-6
Mark your calendar: vs. West Virginia, Oct. 29; vs. Pittsburgh, Nov. 11.
ODDS AND ENDS
--West Virginia will be without starting senior quarterback Brandon Hogan against Maryland Saturday. Hogan has been suspended indefinitely after a drunken driving arrest. The Mountaineers opened as 14-point favorites, but the line had dropped to -10 as of Wednesday.
--Auburn’s best offensive lineman Lee Ziemba injured his knee against Mississippi State, but is expected to play against Clemson. Without the All-SEC tackle, the Tigers struggled to move the ball on the ground against the Bulldogs.
--Air Force starting fullback Jared Tew is battling a hand injury and may miss Saturday’s game at Oklahoma. A first-team preseason All-Mountain West preseason selection, Tew is a major factor in the Falcons’ triple-option offense.
--Army linebacker Andrew Rodriguez, who led the team in tackles last season, has missed the first two games and is questionable Saturday against North Texas.
Payneful Picks
(Season: 1-6. Last week: 1-4)
Maryland at West Virginia
Pick: Maryland +10
Alabama at Duke
Pick: Alabama -23.5
Florida at Tennessee
Pick: Florida -14
Home dogs have gotten off to a hot start this season, covering the spread at a 60 percent clip. That won’t last. In 2009, home dogs were the worst bet on the board. They covered just 47.4 percent, the worst percentage out of home favorites, road favorites and road underdogs.
Over the last 10 seasons, home underdogs are 1,307-1,228-49 against the spread. That’s just barely over 50 percent. Three-point home dogs are 496-487-11. Double-digit home dogs have a remarkably similar success rate, 496-485-11.
Those results aren’t making anyone rich.
“There are short cycles in which either home or road numbers will show a small advantage,” Covers Expert and Las Vegas line analyst David Malinsky explained. “But the marketplace does such a good job at flattening them out that any long-term research reveals no major edges - over a 10-year period, for instance, there is almost nothing that will show an appreciable edge.”
There are, however, a few teams that have embraced the role of home dog on a consistent basis. And, of course, others who could have had the entire U.S. Military behind them, and it wouldn’t matter.
As we head into Week 3, keep an eye out for the worst and best home dogs.
WORST HOME DOGS
(ATS record as a home underdog over last 10 seasons)
Army Black Knights: 12-25-1
Mark the calendar: vs. Temple, Oct. 9; vs. Air Force, Nov. 6.
Indiana Hoosiers: 13-23
Mark the calendar: vs. Michigan, Oct. 2; vs. Iowa, Nov. 6; vs. Penn State, Nov. 20.
Duke Blue Devils: 16-30
Mark the calendar: vs. Alabama, Saturday; vs. Miami, Oct. 16; vs. Virginia, Nov. 6; vs. Boston College, Nov. 13; vs. North Carolina, Nov. 27.
Baylor Bears: 13-26-1
Mark the calendar: vs. Texas A&M, Nov. 13; vs. Oklahoma, Nov. 20
BEST HOME DOGS
Rice Owls: 18-8-2
Mark your calendar: vs. Northwestern, Saturday; vs. Baylor, Sept 25; vs. SMU, Oct. 2; vs. Houston, Oct. 16.
Virginia Cavaliers: 18-9
Mark the calendar: vs. Florida State, Oct. 2; vs. North Carolina, Oct. 16; vs. Miami, Oct. 30.
Cincinnati Bearcats: 12-5
Mark your calendar: vs. Oklahoma, Sept. 25; vs. Pittsburgh, Dec. 4.
Wake Forest: 14-7-1
Mark your calendar: vs. Georgia Tech, Oct. 2; vs. Clemson, Nov. 20.
UConn: 13-6
Mark your calendar: vs. West Virginia, Oct. 29; vs. Pittsburgh, Nov. 11.
ODDS AND ENDS
--West Virginia will be without starting senior quarterback Brandon Hogan against Maryland Saturday. Hogan has been suspended indefinitely after a drunken driving arrest. The Mountaineers opened as 14-point favorites, but the line had dropped to -10 as of Wednesday.
--Auburn’s best offensive lineman Lee Ziemba injured his knee against Mississippi State, but is expected to play against Clemson. Without the All-SEC tackle, the Tigers struggled to move the ball on the ground against the Bulldogs.
--Air Force starting fullback Jared Tew is battling a hand injury and may miss Saturday’s game at Oklahoma. A first-team preseason All-Mountain West preseason selection, Tew is a major factor in the Falcons’ triple-option offense.
--Army linebacker Andrew Rodriguez, who led the team in tackles last season, has missed the first two games and is questionable Saturday against North Texas.
Payneful Picks
(Season: 1-6. Last week: 1-4)
Maryland at West Virginia
Pick: Maryland +10
Alabama at Duke
Pick: Alabama -23.5
Florida at Tennessee
Pick: Florida -14
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