Friday NCAAF action: What bettors need to know

Kansas at Southern Mississippi (-5.5 49.5)

WHY KANSAS WILL COVER

The Jayhawks’ season was written off by most after they lost 6-3 to North Dakota State in their season opener. But in Week 2, head coach Turner Gill made some adjustments and engineered a 28-25 upset over a ranked Georgia Tech team.

Gill made two key changes in that game: he gave the starting quarterback job to red shirt freshman Jordan Webb and the feature running back spot to James Sims, a true freshman.

Kansas carries the momentum into Friday and aims to establish an attack similar to what South Carolina employed against Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles struggled against the run in that game giving up 224 yards on 35 carries in a 41-13 loss.

The Jayhawks were not the same team that lost to North Dakota State and Southern Miss is a bit of a talent downgrade compared to Georgia Tech. And don’t forget the Jayhawks’ offensive coordinator, Darrell Wyatt, held the same position previously at Southern Miss.

WHY SOUTHERN MISS WILL COVER

Last year as +11.5 point underdogs in Lawrence, the Golden Eagles came back from a 21-7 deficit and nearly upset Kansas. The revenge factor gets a boost this year with ESPN cameras and home field advantage.

QB Austin Davis threw for 331 yards and 3 TDs in last year’s tilt and he leads a fast-paced offense that looks to exploit Kansas’s defensive depth problems. Against Georgia Tech, the Jayhawks D focused mainly on containing the option and they still gave up 407 yards of total offense.

NOTES AND TRENDS

People don’t seem to be sold on Kansas with the line opening up at -4 in favor of Southern Miss, which has now seen movement up to -5.5. The Jayhawks are decent against the spread (ATS) in non-conference games covering the spread six times in their last seven. Southern Miss is 0-2 ATS so far this year and both of their games have gone over the total.

A low of 69 degrees is expected by kickoff with a 10 percent chance of precipitation.

California at Nevada (+2.5, 65.5)

WHY CAL WILL COVER

The Golden Bears have the historical edge in this series going 22-1-1 against the Wolf Pack and they’ve also completely dominated their opponents in 2010, outscoring Colorado and UC Davis 104-10. QB Kevin Riley is a huge part of that offensive explosion and he already has seven TD passes this season.

Nevada runs a high-powered offense and has scored 100 points in two games. Their pistol attack leads the nation in total yards at 592 per game.

The Cal’s stopper unit should have the personnel to handle their attack. The Golden Bears produced five turnovers and six sacks in their last game against Colorado and they have been particularly good against the run allowing only 44.5 yards per game.

WHY NEVADA WILL COVER

This is the last chance for the Nevada seniors to prove that Boise isn’t the only the quality team in the WAC. Other than their November encounter with the Broncos, the Cal game is the most important one on the schedule. The group has gradually improved over the last three years.

Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick has been under the radar despite all his talents. The senior is one of the most exciting offensive players in the NCAA as he demonstrated against Colorado State (241 passing yards, 161 rushing yards, four combined TDs). A big performance on national TV against a BCS team would increase his profile.

NOTES AND TRENDS

The line sits at -3 in favor of the visiting Cal Bears and can be found for -2.5 at some books. The Wolf Pack have only covered once in the last four games when listed as underdogs in non-conference games. Nevada is also just 2-18 straight up against BCS schools since 2004.

The total opened at 62 and has moved all the way up to 66 with most expecting an offensive shootout.

The low temperature is expected to touch 52 degrees by kickoff. Expect a decent sized Golden Bear contingent in the stands because of Reno’s close proximity to Northern California.