Myles Valentin writes for Nick Parsons
Kansas at Southern Mississippi (-5.5 49.5)
Why Kansas will cover
After losing 6-3 to North Dakota State it was easy to write off the Jayhawks, but in week 2, Turner Gill made some adjustments and engineered a 28-25 upset over a ranked Georgia Tech team. Gill made two key changes in that game: giving the starting Quarterback job to redshirt freshman Jordan Webb and the feature running back spot to James Sims, a true freshman.
Kansas will now carry that momentum into Friday and will aim to establish an attack similar to what South Carolina employed against Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles struggled against the run in that game giving up 224 yards on 35 carries in a 41-13 loss.
The Jayhawks were clearly not the same team that lost to North Dakota State, and Southern Miss is a bit of a talent downgrade compared to Georgia Tech. Also add in the fact that their co-OC Darrell Wyatt held the same position previously at Southern Miss.
Why Southern Mississippi will cover
Last year as +11.5 point underdogs in Lawrence, the Golden Eagles came back from a 21-7 deficit and nearly upset Kansas. The revenge factor gets a boost this year with ESPN cameras and home-field advantage.
QB Austin Davis was a key player in last year’s game where he threw for 331 yards and 3 TDs. He leads a fast paced offense that will look to take advantage of Kansas’s defensive depth problems. Against Georgia Tech the Jayhawks D focused mainly on containing the option and they still gave up 407 yards of total offense.
Notes & Trends
People don’t seem to be sold on Kansas with the line opening up at -4 in favor of Southern Miss, which has now seen movement up to -5.5. The Jayhawks are decent ATS in non-conference games covering the spread 6 times in their last 7.
Southern Miss is 0-2 ATS so far this year and both of their games have gone over the total.
A low of 69 is expected by kickoff with a 10% chance of precipitation.
California at Nevada (+2.5, 65.5)
Why California will cover
The Golden Bears have the historical edge in this series going 22-1-1 against the Wolf Pack, but they’ve also completely dominated their opponents in 2010 outscoring them 104-10. QB Kevin Riley is a huge part of that offensive explosion having already thrown for 7 TD's.
Nevada themselves run a high powered offense having scored 100 points in two games and they lead the nation in total yards at 592 per game. The California D however, does have the personnel to handle their attack.
The Golden Bears produced five turnovers and six sacks in their last game against Colorado and they have been particularly good against the run allowing only 44.5 yards per game.
Why Nevada will cover
2010 is the last chance for the Nevada seniors to prove that Boise isn’t the only the quality team in the WAC. Other than their November encounter with the Broncos, the Cal game is the most important one on the schedule. The group has gradually improved over the last three years increasing their win total by 1 each year. Much of this can be attributed to their Quarterback.
For all his talents Kaepernick has gone under the radar. The senior QB is one of the most exciting offensive player in the NCAA, against Colorado state he went 21-29 on 241 yards passing and 2 TD's, while adding 161 yards and 2 TD's on the ground. A big performance on national TV against a BCS team would surely increase his profile.
Notes & Trends
The line sits at -3 in favor of the visiting Cal Bears and can be found for -2.5 at some books. When listed as underdogs in non-conference games, the Wolf Pack have only covered once in the last four games.
Total opened at 62 and has moved all the way up to 66 with most expecting an offensive shootout.
A low of 52 is expected by kickoff and with Reno in close proximity to Northern California, expect there to be a decently sized Golden Bear contingent in the stands
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