With Boise State on the schedule this Saturday, you’ll hear a lot about Oregon State this week. And much of it will be negative.
You’ll hear about the fact that they lost their final two games last season. You’ll hear about the fact that on a national stage they opened this season with a 30-21 loss to TCU. You’ll hear a lot about the notion that the Beavers don’t even deserve the No. 24 ranking they currently own.
And all of those points are valid. All of them are accurate. But the oddsmakers like a different notion. The oddsmakers are more interested in what happened last week. You should be, too.
On Saturday, Oregon State, as a 21-point favorite at home against hapless Louisville, sputtered to a 35-28 win. It was as ho-hum as they come.
“I actually think that at the end, it’s good to be in games like that,” Oregon State coach Mike Riley said. “Those experiences should help you the next time.”
The gentlemen, who make the lines in the desert disagree, Mike.
“We’re not impressed with Oregon State at all,” said Pete Korner, of Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “For a Pac-10 team that had some expectations, there’s not much there.”
Give credit to the Beavers for scheduling these non-BCS conference power teams early on in the year. After all, this is still a team that could right itself, and go and win the Pac-10. But what matters right now, is the fact that they’re allowing 29 points per game. And the No. 3 Broncos are anxious to pounce.
“Boise State got by that first game vs. Virginia Tech and that was their test,” Korner said. “Obviously, Virginia Tech isn’t what many people thought, but that game is past Boise State now, one way or the other. And from here on in, they just want to pile it on.”
Which is why Korner opened the game with the host Broncos as 17-point favorites.
“And even with that, we might get a ton of Boise State money, which is what we don’t want,” Korner said. “But I expect to move it as the week goes. It could go, perhaps, as high as 21.”
Not exactly a bold statement for the Beavers.
“It’s the moment you have been waiting for,” Oregon State running back Jacquizz Rodgers said. “We will try to study Boise State, in order to find ways to make the plays against them.”
As heavy, heavy underdogs, the key might just be the other way around, Jacquizz. Forget making plays against them, just keep the Broncos from making a ton of their own.
And with that, let’s take a look at some other Week 4 games, and the opening opinions coming out of Las Vegas.
Miami (-2.5) at Pitt
“We’re going with a road favorite,” Korner said. “It’s still early, we’ll see where it goes from here. The jury’s still out on Pitt, but it’s a marquee game, and there’s no guarantee Miami’s going to win. Pitt can easily get it done, and change the public opinion on them for the rest of the season.”
TCU (-19) at Southern Methodist
“We don’t want to be low on this one,” Korner said. “TCU’s going to have to keep up with Boise State every week now, so we know we’re going to have to be high.”
Stanford (-3) at Notre Dame
“Good opportunity for Stanford to show us all just who they are,” Korner said. “They can put a few notches in their belt with a road win at Notre Dame, so we’re gonna say Stanford -3. Personally, I don’t think Notre Dame can keep up with them.”
Temple (+16) at Penn State
“Temple has not played too badly,” Korner said. “They are right there, and my ratings are good on them. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hang around here. It could come down to a cheap score at the end.”
UCLA (+19) at Texas
“I was real surprised at the UCLA score from Saturday (a 31-13 win over Houston),” Korner said. “We stuck it at 19 and we’ll see what happens. I think UCLA has no chance. They will be out of their element. Texas is the play and leave it alone.”
Alabama (-7.5) at Arkansas
“That might be a little too high for Alabama, but we’ll see what they do with that line during the week,” Korner said. “Arkansas can play, and they will be at home, but (running back) Mark Ingram is back for Alabama, and they are clicking on all cylinders.”
Oklahoma (-16) at Cincinnati (Paul Brown Stadium)
“Not a true home field for Cincinnati, so that doesn’t help,” Korner said. “We’ve been really disappointed in Cincinnati. They’ve looked lifeless and because of that, the play is on Oklahoma.”
South Carolina (+2.5) at Auburn
“Good game, and it could be decided by one play late,” Korner said. “Auburn gets the small nod, because they’re at home. Both teams are equal. This could go either way.”
West Virginia (+8) at LSU
“This has two quality teams, but with the SEC being at home, I wanted to put it at more than a touchdown,” Korner said. “But West Virginia can play a little. They could surprise a few people in this spot.”
Cal (+6) at Arizona
“First of all, Nevada is tough, so Cal’s (52-31) loss to Nevada last week is not a huge upset,” Korner said. “I think they can bounce back from that. They have the talent to do it. I really think Cal can pull the upset here.”
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