TCU at SMU: What bettors need to know

TCU Horned Frogs at SMU Mustangs (+17.5, 55.5)

June Jones and the SMU Mustangs will be looking to pull off a huge upset against the fifth-ranked TCU Horned Frogs, in the Battle for the Iron Skillet. The Dallas-Fort Worth rivalry takes place on Friday night and TCU is listed as -17.5 favorites

Why TCU will cover

Expectations are the highest they have ever been at TCU and so far the Horned Frogs are living up to the hype. Their 3-0 record includes a tough win over Oregon State and huge blowout over a decent Baylor squad.

Gary Patterson's team ranks high in both offensive and defensive production which makes a three-touchdown victory a strong possibility Friday. The Horned Frogs are averaging 45.7 points a game and they rank fourth in yards allowed giving up just 222.7 per game. History is also on their side having won nine of the last 10 contests in this rivalry.

Southern Methodist’s sophomore QB Kyle Padron (a Southlake Carroll grad) has been decent so far this year but this is the first time he will be facing a defense of this caliber. Technically speaking, TCU's 4-2-5 is built to handle a June Jones-type offense. Padron will have a tough time finding mismatches which was key in SMU's victories over UAB and Washington State.

Patterson realizes that his team not only needs to win all their games, but they need to win big. Narrow margins of victory against Oregon State and Utah might be accepted by the voters, but a scare or two from the other teams on their schedule will prove costly.

Why SMU will cover

This is not the same SMU team that went 1-11 in 2008. June Jones brought over his Hawaii offense and managed to produce an 8-5 record and a bowl win in just his second year as head coach. While it is still a pass-heavy system, Jones has incorporated more of a rushing game to his offense. Jones had his first ever 1000 yard rusher last season.

The possession time will increase for SMU, whether or not they get into the end zone. Jones is aware of the 4-2-5 and realizes the importance of establishing the run as a legitimate threat.

Texas Christian will be in the Cover 2 and Cover 5 the majority of the time, which means that SMU will go to the ground more than they usually do. Their running back Zach Line is tailor made for slowing down the pace of the game. The converted linebacker is grinder and is more of a Tim Riggins type, than Smash Williams.

While an SMU win is unlikely, the slowed-down in pace should make a 17.5-point cover a difficult task for TCU.

Notes and trends

The line opened at 17.5 and it has seen slight half-point movements to -18 at some books. Consensus opinion is strong on TCU to cover at a 70/30 split. The Mustangs loss 39-14 last year but managed to cover the 28-point spread.

The total has been steadily moving up throughout the week and now sits at 55.5 at most books. Both teams are a combined 4-2 over/under this season. The line has been sharp in this rivalry with the 2008 contest going over the total of 53 by only two points and last year's game resulting in a push.

The weather in Dallas is expected to be cloudy and wet with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night.