FANTASY MOCK DRAFT - NBA
Throughout the week, we'll be mock drafting the first five rounds of a fantasy hoops league. The format should be fairly familiar to regular Roto Arcade readers - one round per day, with six managers drafting two teams each, adding their analysis for each pick along the way. As always, we look forward to your thoughtful discussion of the picks and analysis in the comments section. Assumed settings are 9-cat h2h.
Links to previous results: Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Round 4
5.01 Jason Richardson(notes), GF, PHO – Of all the beneficiaries of Amar'e Stoudemire’s(notes) departure, J-Rich is likely the biggest winner, as he becomes the primary recipient of Steve Nash’s(notes) passes. Supplementing the Danilo Gallinari(notes) pick at the top of the turn, Jason instantly makes this team competitive in threes and commits this team to a punt strategy that ignores both assists and steals. Any time a team punts assists, turnovers should be relatively easy to lock up from week to week, with players who handle the ball and initiate the offense being more likely to turn the ball over. Through the first five rounds, this team’s strengths are points and FT% (rock solid), rebounds and threes (strong). With a few other key pickups along the way, this team could maintain these strengths while also shoring up two of blocks, FG% and turnovers. (Phil Londen)
5.02 Paul Pierce(notes), SF, BOS – One of the benefits of pursuing a more balanced approach instead of an aggressive punt strategy is that it allows you to maximize value from each draft pick. Although his ADP has taken a hit from last year based upon the anticipation of a decline in production/minutes and the threat of random DNP-CDs, Paul Pierce should finish inside of the top fifty this season. Pierce’s minutes won’t decline much, as the Celtics are relatively thin at small forward and are going to be jockeying for playoff seeding in the suddenly stacked Eastern Conference. This team is strongest in FT%, assists, points, steals and to a lesser extent boards. The priority with the remaining picks will be focusing on solidifying rebounds as a legitimate strength, while also building value in blocks, FG% and threes. Turnovers are lost cause at this point. (Londen)
5.03 Raymond Felton(notes), PG, NYK - I probably could have used a PF or C in this spot but I felt I’d be reaching for a good fit at those positions at this point in the draft. Felton, in D’Antoni’s system, was a much better value here. There’s legitimate reason to believe he’ll have his best season yet in NYC. (Brandon Funston)
5.04 Mo Williams(notes), PG, CLE - Obviously, he becomes more of a focal point with LeBron gone. And he was already contributing, if even just marginally, across a lot of categories - this team’s MO. With more of the spotlight, I could see his FG% becoming more of a negative, and ball security being, well, less secure. But he also has the potential to be a 20/6/3 guy with a steal and a couple treys chipped in. This team is built to absorb some extra turnovers and a hit to the shooting percentage, if that turns out to be the case with Mo. (Funston)
5.05 Gilbert Arenas(notes), G, WAS - The latest reports surrounding Agent Zero have all been glowing stating he is more than ready to move past last year's gun incident and, more importantly, he's looked fantastic in workouts. He'll likely move over to the SG slot to make way for John Wall(notes), but he'll still be relied on significantly and be a major fantasy contributor (think plenty of scoring but natural dip in playmaking). Last year, Gilbert was just settling into a nice groove before his suspension (last 17 games: 24.7 PTS, 2.4 3's, 4.6 REB, 7.9 AST and 1.4 steals) signaling he still has plenty of game left. I'm quite happy with this team (Howard, Rondo, Boozer, Gay, Arenas) as through five rounds I'm pretty solid in PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK and FG%. Three's are on the upswing and going forward I'd likely target a few from the plethora of big men (Okafor, Biedrins or Dalembert), a few decent PG's (Brooks, Holiday or Nelson) and a couple of good three point wings (Crawford, Morrow or EGordon). (Oleh Kosel)
5.06 Trevor Ariza(notes), GF, NOR - Unlike last season, Ariza is a guy I'm really high on this time around because he has fallen into an ideal environment. In Houston, he was placed in a role with too many playmaking and scoring responsibilities, and not surprisingly, faltered letting a lot of fantasy owners down. In New Orleans, the ball will be dominated by Chris Paul(notes) so he'll be free to roam anywhere between the 3 point line and the basket and the majority of times, end up with open looks. In addition, the Hornets have been starving for athleticism so look for him to fill up a stat sheet similar to what he did in HOU once he reduced his offensive load starting last February. In his final 26 games, he put up an average of 13.7 PTS, 2.0 3's, 5.5 REB, 4.2 AST, 1.8 STL and .8 BLK - good enough for a 28th 9-category ranking. Going forward, this team is healthy in PTS, 3's, ASTS, STLS and FT% and I'd look to improve upon REB and BLKS. (Kosel)
5.07 Paul Millsap(notes), PF, UTH - Whether or not Kirilenko gets swapped for Diaw as part of the proposed four-team deal involving Carmelo Anthony(notes), I remain optimistic about Millsap's outlook for this season. The Jazz will have no choice but to let Millsap loose with their depleted frontcourt -- one that will be without Mehmet Okur(notes) until late December or early January. Millsap has that starting PF spot all but locked up at this point and given what he has done in 47 career starts at PF (16 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2,5 assists, 1.1 blocks, 1.3 steals), he is well worth a selection in the mid-to-late 5th round. This team's final roster: Kobe Bryant(notes), Brook Lopez(notes), Manu Ginobili(notes), Kevin Love(notes), Paul Millsap. (Justin Phan)
5.08 LaMarcus Aldridge(notes), PF, POR - The off-season reports have been favorable so far, with LMA adding 20 pounds of bulk to his frame without sacrificing much of his quick and explosion along the way. It appears that LMA may have approached his ceiling value already in his 4th season, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing when he has put up consistent fourth-to-fifth round impact over the past two seasons. I'm expecting some modest improvements in his assists, blocks, and turnovers, but nothing too significant. You really know what you're going to get here and I'm coming out ahead here even if he replicates his '09-'10 averages. This team's final roster: Dwyane Wade(notes), Gerald Wallace(notes), Nene Hilario(notes), Darren Collison(notes), LaMarcus Aldridge. (Phan)
5.09 Anthony Randolph(notes), FC, NYK - This team needs blocks and boards, and Randolph has as much potential in those two categories as anyone in the league beyond Dwight Howard(notes) and Marcus Camby(notes). An ankle injury limited him to 33 games last season, and while he was a disappointment to Don Nelson and subsequently fantasy owners, it should be noted that his per-36s at age 20 included 18.5 points, 10.3 boards, 1.3 steals, and 2.5 blocks. Mike D'Antoni has been the anti-Nelson this off-season, praising Randolph's versatility and projecting an integral role for his team. I'm believing the hype... again. (Matt Buser)
5.10 Aaron Brooks(notes), PG, HOU - There is some uncertainty with Brooks, like every other Rockets player, because of the Yao factor. But Yao is very likely to stay on his strict minutes limit for the vast majority of the regular season, so Brooks will once again be a focal point for his team's offense. Although this pick pushes the upper limits of where I'm comfortable drafting him, he happens a great fit from a team perspective, given the need for threes, assists, and FT% help. He also sets up the team to punt steals the rest of the way. (Buser)
5.11 Andrew Bogut(notes), C, MIL - This is head-to-head, where the early weeks of the season aren't nearly as important as the final month, so Bogut's usage in October and November is only a modest concern. We know the elbow may not be pain-free for a while, but I'm getting him outside the top-50 here, where he begins to look like a nice risk/reward play. If he's delivering a good impression of hs pre-injury self by February, then this pick pays off. (Andy Behrens)
5.12 Andray Blatche(notes), FC, WAS - Once again, I'm targeting a player who's recovering from an injury - in Blatche's case, a broken foot - but the head-to-head format minimizes the worry. Blatche is talking a good game, so I'm not too concerned about his early availability. With Wall and Arenas around, it may not be realistic to think that Andray can quite reach 22.1 PPG - his post-break scoring average last year - but the rebounds (8.3), steals (1.5) and blocks (0.8) should hold steady. (Behrens)


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