Once Week 3 is out of the way, everything gets much more interesting in the NFL.
Bettors and oddsmakers alike start to get a better idea of what teams are all about, though after Week 3’s results, it seems like the only thing that’s really predictable in this league is unpredictability. This is also our first week dealing with byes and injuries continue to pile up, so there are a lot of handicapping factors in play.
Based on Covers.com’s closing odds, underdogs were 10-5 against the number in Week 3 with seven of those dogs winning outright.
This week there aren’t nearly as many big underdogs on the board (though Carolina did open as a 13.5-point dog at New Orleans), but some of the average pointspreads may not stay that way for very long.
“I can see the Colts line (-9 at Jacksonville) moving because Indy takes so much public money,” says Sportsinteraction.com oddsmaker Greg Sindall. “I can see that line moving as much as a full point. We’ll have the combined effect of people fading the Jags after last Sunday’s terrible effort against Philadelphia. Bettors will think, ‘if they lost that badly to the Eagles, how could they possibly compete against Indianapolis?’”
Another matchup to keep a close eye on is the Atlanta Falcons as 7-point favorites against the San Francisco 49ers.
“I could easily see this number going up throughout the week,” Chuck Esposito, Casino Operations Mangers at Tropicana Las Vegas, says. “We have two teams heading in opposite directions. The Falcons could easily be 3 - 0 while the 49ers have lost to both the Seahawks and Chiefs. Heading into the season the 49ers were on everybody's sleeper list and were expected to win their division.”
Instead, the 49ers sit at the bottom of the NFC West and have covered just once through their 0-3 start. The 49ers along with the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers haven’t won yet and are tough for oddsmakers and bettors to get a handle on.
“The road isn't really easy for any of those teams with both the Lions and Panthers being double-digit dogs, the Bills (+4.5) hosting the Jets, and the 49ers against the hot Falcons,” says Esposito. “I really don't see the betting public backing any of them.”
“The only one that may get some interest is the Browns (+3 at home against the Cincinnati Bengals). They haven't played that bad and have been in a couple of games. They usually get up for their interstate rivals.”
Sindall agrees about the 0-3 teams.
“To be honest, I don’t really like any of the 0 – 3 teams,” Sindall says. “They’re all 0 – 3 for a reason. They’re terrible! I guess if I had to take one, I would take Carolina and the points. They haven’t been scoring much, but the Saints have been allowing teams to score and have not been putting up huge offensive numbers. Plus, if Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas are a little banged up, that could help the Panthers cause especially with Reggie Bush already out.”
Last week we saw a number of big injuries impact lines and action. This week injuries won’t play as big of a factor, though there is one guy that could make a difference to bettors and books.
“One injury we are keeping an eye on is Ray Rice (knee) for Baltimore,” Sindall says. “When you’re playing against a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers and they can take a little focus on one aspect of the offense because it is weaker, it could make for a long day for the Ravens offense.”
Ray Rice has 210 rushing yards this season, averaging four yards per carry. Baltimore is set as a 1-point underdog against the Steelers.
Bettors and oddsmakers alike start to get a better idea of what teams are all about, though after Week 3’s results, it seems like the only thing that’s really predictable in this league is unpredictability. This is also our first week dealing with byes and injuries continue to pile up, so there are a lot of handicapping factors in play.
Based on Covers.com’s closing odds, underdogs were 10-5 against the number in Week 3 with seven of those dogs winning outright.
This week there aren’t nearly as many big underdogs on the board (though Carolina did open as a 13.5-point dog at New Orleans), but some of the average pointspreads may not stay that way for very long.
“I can see the Colts line (-9 at Jacksonville) moving because Indy takes so much public money,” says Sportsinteraction.com oddsmaker Greg Sindall. “I can see that line moving as much as a full point. We’ll have the combined effect of people fading the Jags after last Sunday’s terrible effort against Philadelphia. Bettors will think, ‘if they lost that badly to the Eagles, how could they possibly compete against Indianapolis?’”
Another matchup to keep a close eye on is the Atlanta Falcons as 7-point favorites against the San Francisco 49ers.
“I could easily see this number going up throughout the week,” Chuck Esposito, Casino Operations Mangers at Tropicana Las Vegas, says. “We have two teams heading in opposite directions. The Falcons could easily be 3 - 0 while the 49ers have lost to both the Seahawks and Chiefs. Heading into the season the 49ers were on everybody's sleeper list and were expected to win their division.”
Instead, the 49ers sit at the bottom of the NFC West and have covered just once through their 0-3 start. The 49ers along with the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers haven’t won yet and are tough for oddsmakers and bettors to get a handle on.
“The road isn't really easy for any of those teams with both the Lions and Panthers being double-digit dogs, the Bills (+4.5) hosting the Jets, and the 49ers against the hot Falcons,” says Esposito. “I really don't see the betting public backing any of them.”
“The only one that may get some interest is the Browns (+3 at home against the Cincinnati Bengals). They haven't played that bad and have been in a couple of games. They usually get up for their interstate rivals.”
Sindall agrees about the 0-3 teams.
“To be honest, I don’t really like any of the 0 – 3 teams,” Sindall says. “They’re all 0 – 3 for a reason. They’re terrible! I guess if I had to take one, I would take Carolina and the points. They haven’t been scoring much, but the Saints have been allowing teams to score and have not been putting up huge offensive numbers. Plus, if Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas are a little banged up, that could help the Panthers cause especially with Reggie Bush already out.”
Last week we saw a number of big injuries impact lines and action. This week injuries won’t play as big of a factor, though there is one guy that could make a difference to bettors and books.
“One injury we are keeping an eye on is Ray Rice (knee) for Baltimore,” Sindall says. “When you’re playing against a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers and they can take a little focus on one aspect of the offense because it is weaker, it could make for a long day for the Ravens offense.”
Ray Rice has 210 rushing yards this season, averaging four yards per carry. Baltimore is set as a 1-point underdog against the Steelers.
Comments