The Yankees lead the majors in runs scored, but will shaky starting pitching derail their hopes of a repeat?
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SERIES ODDS: New York Yankees (-184) vs. Minnesota Twins (+169)
PITCHING
It’s a safe bet that the Yankees will send C.C. Sabathia to the mound in Wednesday’s series opener. Outside of that, nobody knows exactly what Joe Girardi’s postseason rotation will look like. We suspect it will be a three-man rotation featuring Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes, in that order. If so, that’s a dangerous proposition for the defending champs.
After spending two months on the disabled list with a strained groin, Pettitte returned to go 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts down the stretch. He beat the Twins in last year’s ALDS and has a long history of postseason success, but has not looked like himself lately.
The Twins will go with a four-man rotation, headlined by Game 1 starter Francisco Liriano. Liriano has had a big season for Minnesota but is just 1-3 with a 6.98 ERA in his last four starts. He will be followed by Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, and if a Game 4 is necessary, Nick Blackburn. You can bet Pavano’s reception at Yankee Stadium for Game 2 will be less than friendly. The man dubbed “American Idle” by the New York tabloids made just 26 starts in a four-year stint as a Yankee from 2005-2008.
The incomparable Mariano Rivera gives the Yankees a slight edge in the bullpen. Rivera has blown three saves in his last seven chances, but when the money’s on the line, we still trust him more than any closer in baseball.
The bottom line is that the lack of reliable depth in New York’s rotation should have Yankee backers more than a little nervous.
Edge: Twins
OFFENSE
The Twins’ title hopes took a blow on Monday when they announced that Justin Morneau would not return for the playoffs. Morneau, who has been out since early July with a concussion, had hoped to return in time for a potential ALCS matchup.
While we’d never suggest Minnesota is better off without Morneau, his teammates deserve credit for stepping up in his absence. The Twins averaged 4.7 runs per game with Morneau, but are scoring 5.0 runs per game since his injury. Since the All-Star break, Joe Mauer is batting a torrid .373 and Jim Thome is hitting .313 with 15 homers. Delmon Young’s 54 second-half RBIs are the third-most in the American League.
For the second straight season, the Yankees led the majors in runs per game (5.3). Their lineup is as devastating as it is deep, especially now that Alex Rodriguez has hit his stride. Since Sept. 1, A-Rod is batting .309 and leads the team with 26 RBIs.
This has been a breakout year for Robinson Cano. Cano is hitting .319 on the season and has piled up 29 homers and 109 RBIs, both career highs. He is batting a team-best .322 with runners in scoring position and has played Gold-Glove caliber defense at second base. We think this is the year that Cano, a lifetime .217 postseason hitter, makes his mark in October.
Edge: Yankees
INTANGIBLES
Make no mistake: the aura of the pinstripes can be intimidating. Gardenhire’s teams have played fundamentally sound baseball over the years, but they looked unfocused while being swept by the Yankees last October. In fact, the Yankees are 54-18 against Gardenhire’s Twins since 2002, a disparity we can’t overlook.
Minnesota had a better September than New York, but that doesn’t outweigh the Yankees’ postseason experience.
Edge: Yankees
Pick: Yankees in five games.
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