The season reaches the midway point for several teams this week, but I’ve already seen enough. There’s Alabama and then there is everybody else.
The Crimson Tide, winners of 19 in a row, have been brushing aside challenger after challenger for the better part of three seasons.
In 2008, only Florida and Tim Tebow kept Alabama out of the Bowl Championship Series title game.
In 2009, the Crimson Tide went undefeated and destroyed Texas in the BCS title game.
In 2010, they stand 5-0 after dismantling the Gators, 31-6, last Saturday.
But here’s that statistic they don’t tell you about on TV: Since the start of the 2008 season, Alabama is a sparkling 22-11 against the spread. That’s 66.6 percent.
Considering the Crimson Tide have been favored in nearly every game, the 66.6 percent is even more impressive.
Alabama has a tricky game Saturday at South Carolina, but the only way the Crimson Tide lose is if there is a hangover from the Florida victory. Obviously, a lot of bettors believe that is going to happen. Alabama opened as a 10-point favorite and the line has dropped to 6.5.
But are those gamblers being smart with their money, or are they merely playing a hunch? South Carolina, coming off a bye week, is playing at home against a powerhouse team coming off an emotional victory.
It makes a lot of sense, but hear me out.
Some of the most successful gamblers I know often zero in on one conference. They study the personal and the strengths and weaknesses of each team. For example, some teams can run, other teams can’t stop the run. That’s simple enough.
But they are also accomplished at money management. Let’s take Alabama, for example. Much of the same personal has been along for this three-year ride of success. They know that Alabama has covered at a 66.6 percent clip for three seasons. Percentages say the Crimson Tide has a two in three chance of covering Saturday.
If Alabama were to lose to South Carolina, there’s a strong chance many of these bettors will be back on the Crimson Tide bandwagon the following two weeks against Mississippi and Tennessee.
After Saturday, Alabama plays four of its final six regular-season games at home. There’s a Nov. 6 road game at Louisiana State and a Nov. 26 home game against Auburn, and each could be tricky, but recent history suggests the Crimson Tide will come prepared.
Who plays opposite of Alabama in the BCS title game? Let’s examine five teams that are in position to do so.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes are 20-10 against the spread since 2008, which equals the Crimson Tide’s clip. However, Ohio State has benefited from playing against Big Ten opposition, a league that has been a notch below the Southeastern Conference in recent seasons. The Buckeyes also play eight home games this season, a huge advantage. Ohio State struggled last week in its first trip away from Columbus, scoring a 24-13 victory at punchless Illinois.
Oregon
The Ducks are 18-13 against the spread since 2008, but the 2010 teams looks a lot like the 2009 team. Oregon is putting up big numbers on offense, but the Pacific 10 is a defenseless league in 2010. Look at the loser’s points in last week’s four league games. The lowest total was 28. Oregon was stopped last season by a quality Ohio State defense. Expect a similar outcome this season.
Boise State
The Broncos are 20-9-1 against the spread since 2008, but they are the bully on the block in a weak Western Athletic Conference. How would this team stand up week to week in the SEC?
Texas Christian
The Horned Frogs, 18-12 against the spread, outclasses Mountain West opponents mainly because the team resides in the fertile recruiting ground of Texas. Its front-line talent can match up with the big boys, but like Boise State, it simply doesn’t have the depth needed to take on an Alabama.
Oklahoma
The Sooners are 18-12-1. Not sold on this team — at least yet. They’ve played a quality nonconference schedule, but are only 2-3 against the number in 2010. Given time, maybe they can develop into a contender. At the moment, Oklahoma has several teams to leapfrog just to get into the title picture.
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